October 9, 2026
The diesel, pending refineries
The government spent years treating Russian fuel as war money. Friday it treated Russian fuel as a midterm strategy.
President Trump said he struck a deal with Vladimir Putin on a phone call: more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November, a million after that, then another 3 million "based on the condition of Russia's refineries." He promised prices would come down "IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST." AAA still had diesel at $6.23 a gallon on Friday, after a $6.52 record in September. The new doctrine is simple. Call the guy we spent years telling you not to buy from, then shout at the pump until it obeys.
Last month Trump signed a sanctions law aimed at Moscow's energy economy. This month Treasury issued OFAC General License 135, which authorizes selling, delivering, offloading, or importing Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7, 2027. The U.S. has not imported Russian oil or gas since 2022. A moral embargo with a seasonal exemption is just a shopping list. The crusade lasted until the gallon got expensive.
Eight days earlier, Putin told a Valdai audience the diesel was sitting there. "We have enough diesel fuel. But it will not come to international markets because the bans, the sanctions are in effect against our oil and petroleum products." Friday the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and oil products to American and global markets. He pointed at the padlock. Washington mailed him the key and called it a negotiation.
Trump said cheaper diesel for farmers, ranchers, and truckers was his greatest priority. The White House did not say who is paying, when the fuel arrives, or whether any of it shows up before Election Day. Greatest priority, mystery invoice, mystery boat. In the meantime he had already floated a U.S. diesel export ban, dropped it, then let truckers run tax-exempt offroad diesel on highways, which only defers the tax. If you cannot produce the fuel, you can at least postpone the tax and hope November arrives first.
Russia's own producer export ban runs through October 31, after Ukrainian strikes on refineries and rationing at home. Those extra 3 million tons still depend on plants that have been getting hit. We are pricing the harvest against a supply chain we watched get bombed, then acting confused about the receipt.
If the tankers show up, farmers and truckers might catch a break. If they don't, everyone still got the announcement, Putin still got the license through next April, and the war keeps the same customers it had on Thursday. Our idiot government did not end a war. It wrote an exception for the fuel it banned, then called the exception a price cut.