The Best Economy, Provided You Don’t Check Hiring

Kevin Hassett has identified a problem with the economy: people keep describing parts of it. On Fox News’ The Sunday Briefing on October 25, the National Economic Council director called it “about the best economy we’ve ever seen.” Calling it a negative thing, he said, was “misrepresenting the facts.” Apparently the facts are available individually, but must be purchased as a celebratory bundle.

His argument deserves its actual context. Hassett pointed to business investment, consumer spending and low layoffs. He acknowledged problems needing repair and said growth would rise further if energy prices fell as President Trump predicted. That is a defense of the broader economy, not a claim that every household is thriving. It is also a forecast about energy prices, not a receipt showing that relief has arrived. The administration has awarded itself the improvement in advance.

Then there is the employment record. The Associated Press reported on October 21 that monthly job gains during Trump’s second term averaged almost 39,000, against more than 121,000 in the preceding year. Recalculating the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonally adjusted payroll series produces 38,800 for February 2025 through September 2026, compared with about 121,583 for calendar 2024. Those are twenty monthly changes versus twelve, not matching calendar periods. January 2025 is the starting level for the second-term calculation, not a month of gains assigned to Trump. These are net payroll additions, not a count of everyone hired, and the comparison does not isolate presidential responsibility.

That qualification does not make the slowdown disappear. September added an estimated 29,000 payroll jobs. In its October 2 release, BLS also revised July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, the revisions removed 60,000 jobs from the previously reported gains. These are statistical revisions, not evidence of a conspiracy. They are nevertheless an inconvenient feature of announcing an economic masterpiece before the numbers have finished arriving.

There are real strengths. September unemployment was 4.2 percent. AP reported the S&P 500 up about 12 percent for the year as of its October 21 analysis. Neither figure should be confiscated because it helps the White House. But unemployment measures joblessness, share prices measure a market, and payroll growth measures changes in jobs. A good reading on one instrument does not repair the others. A portfolio statement is useful. It is not an offer letter.

For someone trying to enter the workforce or change jobs, the distinction is more practical than the television verdict. Hassett can reasonably argue that critics overlook strengths. He cannot make weak job creation irrelevant by widening the camera angle. His own case includes repairs still needed and benefits still expected. The economy may improve. People waiting for that improvement are entitled to notice the wait without being accused of misrepresenting their surroundings.